DRAM and NAND flash manufacturers are seeing a delightful turnaround after steep declines left the industry floundering last year. According to TrendForce, DRAM and NAND flash will see an increase of 75% and 77% in revenue this year, respectively. Rising demand for HBM and improved supply-demand have contributed to the remarkable growth and turnaround.
Next year will also be a bountiful year for the memory market, with DRAM forecasted to increase by 51% and NAND-flash by 29%, reaching new records. Likewise, despite poor average selling prices (ASPs), DRAM manufacturers have pushed toward recovery and stabilization, combating challenges to increase DRAM ASPs by 53% in 2024. TrendForce expects this to grow by another 35% in 2025.
Thanks to interest in artificial intelligence (AI) contributing to HBM demand, stringent control on production capacity, strategic capital expenditures, and recovery in server demand, DRAM has been able to experience an exuberant recovery in revenue. DRAM will see a 75% increase year-on-year (YoY) in revenue for 2024, with an additional 51% growth YoY in 2025. NAND-flash will experience a 77% increase YoY for 2024 and a 29% increase YoY in 2025.
With this growth, memory manufacturers can accelerate investments in the coming years with greater potential for upward revisions. Increased competition between major players within memory will continue to add opportunities for more growth in the coming year. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are gearing up for battle in HBM3 and HBM3e.
Samsung is said to have passed Nvidia’s qualifications tests for its HBM3 chips, meaning that the top three memory manufacturers, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology, are all on the same page in HBM. Now that the playing field is set, the battle can commence.
Reuters and Korea Economic Daily reports say that Samsung’s HBM3 chips will initially be used exclusively in Nvidia’s H20, the company’s less advanced GPU for the Chinese market. Samsung could begin supplying Nvidia with their HBM3 chips as early as August. There is a chance that the U.S. may implement new trade sanctions on China in October, which could put the H20 under a sales ban. How this may affect Samsung’s momentum is unknown for the time being.
Meanwhile, SK Hynix remains the current market leader, with leadership prepared to take over 50% of the total HBM shipments with its significantly expanded HBM3e shipments. So far, SK Hynix’s HBM3e shipments have surpassed its HMB3 shipments, accounting for over half of its total HBM shipments in 2024.
Micron follows suit, pushing for mass production of its 12-layer HBM3e in 2H24 and supply for its major customers, including Nvidia, in 2025. Micron aims to capture 20% to 25% of the HBM market share by 2024, building a pilot production line for HBM in the U.S. and, possibly, Malaysia to gain a greater hold on AI demand, as reported by Nikkei Asia. According to Japan's The Daily Industrial News media outlet, Micron is also gearing up to build a new DRAM plant in Hiroshima for 2026.
After a challenging 2023, the memory market plans to see the most excitement in the coming months as AI fuels competition between these three industry titans.