In the second quarter of 2024, module factory shipments in consumer NAND Flash retail channels have dropped by 40% year-on-year, reflecting that the global consumer memory market is facing severe challenges. Although the memory industry has always been affected by cyclical factors, the decline in shipments in the first half of this year has clearly exceeded market expectations, which indicates that demand will not pick up significantly in the second half of the year.
Factors such as inflation and rising interest rates have impacted consumer spending willingness, indirectly leading to a decline in shipments of consumer memory modules. In addition, the continued rise in NAND Flash wafer prices has significantly increased the operating costs of module factories. However, since the price of end products must remain attractive to stimulate consumer demand, module factories cannot reflect the increased costs, and profit margins are further compressed.
From the perspective of 2025, although DRAM prices are expected to rise quarter by quarter, the reason is that the continued increase in HBM3e penetration has raised the average price, and the supply side is limited by the lack of new production capacity. If consumer demand continues to be weak, the increase in DRAM prices will be lower than expected.
